News - February 10, 2026 - by Ray Hagar

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The rapid expansion of prediction markets in the world of sports betting was apparent in Sunday's Super Bowl, presenting what could become a major crisis for Nevada's legal sports books, a longtime Nevada betting expert said on Nevada Newsmakers recently.

"These betting exchanges are directly competing with regulated and tax-paying sports books," said Joe Asher, CEO of Boomer's Sportsbook, former president of IGT Sports Gaming, founding CEO of William Hill US and a member of the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame.

"It is obvious to me that over time, if these betting exchanges (he refuses to call them prediction markets) continue to operate -- they don't pay a state gaming tax -- so there's going to be a decrease in tax revenue to the states," Asher told host Sam Shad.

The prediction markets -- such as Kalshi and Polymarket -- skirt current gaming laws because rather than odds set by bookmakers, users trade contracts that pay out, depending on the outcome of an event. Prediction markets can also take action on political races, the Oscars, snowfall totals and who will win in the next Survivor series.

"It's gambling. It's a bet," Asher said. "The argument is that this is somehow permitted under the auspices of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC. But, you know, it's not as though the technologies were revolutionary in any stretch of the imagination because it's been around for 25 years."

Prediction markets first entered into the sports betting market early last year, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Now, they're major players.

The Atlantic reported that Kalshi had taken in $167 million in Super Bowl bets before the Feb. 5 publication of its multi-story investigation into prediction markets. That number could have conceivably ballooned to $1 billion by Sunday's kickoff, a gaming expert told The Atlantic.

By comparison, more than $151.6 million was legally bet in Nevada on the Super Bowl in 2025, according to the Gaming Control Board. Last Sunday, Nevada sportsbooks had their lowest combined Super Bowl betting handle in 10 years -- at $133.8 million -- according to Howard Stutz of the Nevada Independent.

"'Prediction market' is really a euphemistic term, OK?" Asher said. "These are betting exchanges. They've been around in in England for 25 years.  They're a way for people to gamble."

Because of prediction markets, people can gamble in the very anti-gambling state of Utah, Asher said. Utah is among 12 states that don't allow sports betting. But people in Utah can still bet via prediction markets, Asher said.

"In Nevada, we choose to have gambling," he said. "Not too far away, in Utah, there's no gambling. But under these betting exchanges -- prediction markets -- they call them. I don't like to use that term because it's just a smokescreen. But they (prediction markets) are offering gambling in Utah."

Nevada's Gaming Control Board is fighting back. It was granted a temporary restraining order in late January, blocking Polymarket from operating within Nevada.

Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury's temporary order expires Feb. 12, well after the Super Bowl.

"What folks are trying to do is skirt the laws and infringe upon the rights of individual states to decide whether they should have gambling in their state or not," Asher said.

The prediction markets could make it too tempting for problem gamblers to get action, Asher warned. However, you can also bet on an iPhone or Android device with Nevada-regulated operators if you are over 21 and within the Nevada state lines.

"It has to be regulated," Asher said of prediction markets. "It has to be very heavily regulated, in my opinion,  just the way it is in Nevada, because for a small percentage of the population there ... they have real problems with gambling."

Asher is alarmed that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently predicted that bettors or players will soon be able to buy prediction-market contracts through the same financial brokerages that hold their 401(k) retirement accounts.

"Robinhood (Markets) was going to let you take money out of your 401(k) to participate in these markets, to gamble right out of your 401(k)!" Asher said. "That's not a good thing at all. And I've heard the CEO of Charles Schwab speak out against that."

Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster told Yahoo Finance that prediction markets could help investors in certain instances, adding that sports betting tied to prediction markets is inconsistent with the brokerage's core mission.

Asher, however, fears the prediction markets already have strong financial backing, political clout and may be too big to fail.

"They are certainly right now trying to make themselves too big to shut down," Asher said.

The prediction markets also has some strong political allies, Asher said.

"You have this scenario where the President's son, Donald Trump Jr., is an adviser to Kalshi. He's an advisory board member of Polymarket, a direct competitor. Do any of us think that Donald Trump Jr. has some special expertise in betting markets or betting exchanges? Or is this a way to curry favor with the administration?

Donald Trump Jr. is both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and a paid adviser to Kalshi, according to the New York Times.

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